A dedicated Democratic activist, Ms. Paul has been tirelessly knocking on countless doors, making phone calls, and distributing flyers in a bid to encourage voters to support Kamala Harris.
When Harris stepped in as the Democratic candidate, taking over from President Joe Biden in July, Ms. Paul felt a surge of optimism, recalling how the vice-president surged ahead in Michigan.
Michigan, alongside Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, is one of the three crucial “blue wall” states that swung Democratic in the 2020 election. Securing Michigan again would significantly bolster Harris’s chances of winning the presidency.
However, with election day looming less than a month away, Harris’s initial momentum in Michigan seems to be waning, making her path to victory increasingly uncertain. A recent Quinnipiac poll revealed that Donald Trump is currently leading by three points in this pivotal swing state.
“It would be unrealistic for anyone to maintain that kind of pace throughout the entire campaign, even with the shortened timeline,” remarked Ms. Paul, a West Bloomfield resident and co-founder of the liberal advocacy group Fems for Dems. “I had hoped we would feel a bit more secure.”
Ms. Paul is not alone in her concerns. Numerous Democratic organizers and lawmakers in Michigan are expressing that the presidential race is proving to be more competitive than anticipated, even as the Harris campaign seems to be learning from the mistakes of 2016. Many believe that former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton lost the state due to complacency.
Once a reliably blue state for decades, Michigan has now transformed into a battleground with 15 crucial Electoral College votes at stake.
At this stage in the election cycle four years ago, when Biden was vying against Trump, the Democratic candidate held a comfortable lead, eventually winning the state by a margin of 150,000 votes. The current race, however, is too close to call.
According to Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University, there is “no obvious solution” for Harris to gain an edge in the race.
The Democrats have invested millions into advertising efforts in Michigan. Since Harris entered the race, over 100,000 new volunteers have signed up in the state, and her campaign has prioritized Michigan, visiting it more than any other state except Pennsylvania.
In contrast, Trump has made a dozen campaign stops in Michigan this year. Still, some campaign strategists have raised alarms about his reliance on traditional ground game tactics—such as door-knocking and billboards—in various swing states, including Michigan.
In response to warnings from at least three Michigan Democratic lawmakers regarding dwindling support, Harris is ramping up her campaign appearances this week.
According to Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes, the tight race should not surprise anyone.
“Anyone on the ground in Michigan should have anticipated that this would be challenging,” she stated. “We always knew it was going to be tough.”
Immigration and the Economy Take Center Stage Up North
Despite Michigan’s distance from the southern border, Democratic organizers report that immigration remains a significant concern for local voters.
“I really don’t understand why,” said Ms. Paul, leader of Fems for Dems. “It just doesn’t seem relevant to us.”
Yet the issue resonates with many voters, including Mary Beierschmitt from Novi, Michigan.
“It’s a major concern,” she noted, expressing her belief that Harris has not effectively managed her responsibilities as vice-president, particularly in addressing the root causes of migration.
Last year, illegal border crossings reached record highs. After the Biden administration implemented asylum restrictions, those numbers dropped to their lowest levels in four years.
Trump has made Harris’s immigration record a focal point of his campaign, targeting not only the southern border but also Midwestern states like Ohio, where he has falsely claimed that Haitian immigrants are settling illegally and harming local pets.
Voters often hold the ruling party accountable for national issues such as the economy and immigration, even if the Biden administration is not solely responsible for the border crisis or rising living costs, according to Jonathon Hanson, a lecturer at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy.
“The challenge for Harris and Biden is that, despite their many efforts to rejuvenate the economy following a major downturn, articulating these successes politically remains complex,” he explained.
Hanson also indicated that Trump may have an advantage among some swing voters in Michigan, given his higher name recognition from four years in office and extensive public visibility.
Tim and Janet from Novi, Michigan, admit they are not fond of Trump’s personality, yet independent voters in their circle have already cast ballots for him, believing he better articulates his policies compared to Harris.
“I can’t support someone just because it’s a feel-good time,” Tim, 75, said, choosing to remain anonymous for privacy. “They need to have actionable policies that benefit us.”
In the Detroit suburb of Warren, however, Harris’s new economic policies are starting to sway independent voter Darrell Sumpter.
During her campaign, the vice-president has introduced various economic proposals, including a plan to provide first-time home buyers with an average of $25,000 and to expand the child tax credit.
“I’ve always struggled to afford a home. I’ve been waiting for years,” said Sumpter, 52, who supported Trump in 2020 but is now leaning toward Harris.
“I don’t want to see the country regress to where it was under Trump,” he added.
Localizing the Campaign
In 2016, former Secretary of State Clinton primarily ran a national campaign in Michigan, rather than focusing on local issues, according to Grossmann.
“The advertising messages were identical here as elsewhere,” he noted. “They largely revolved around Trump’s character and negative portrayals, which many believed were ineffective.”
Clinton ultimately lost the state by a mere 10,000 votes.
Now, both Harris and Trump are tailoring their messages in Michigan to address the state’s largest industry, automotive manufacturing, aiming to appeal to working-class and union voters.
In recent weeks, Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have criticized the Biden administration’s support of the electric vehicle industry, claiming it jeopardizes jobs for Michigan auto workers.
Harris and vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz have countered, asserting that Trump’s presidency was detrimental to manufacturing jobs in the state.
However, political experts suggest that vagueness on certain local issues may actually work in Trump’s favor.
Michigan, which boasts the largest Arab-American population in the United States, is the birthplace of the Uncommitted movement, a protest campaign urging Biden and Harris to secure a ceasefire in Gaza.
This movement has refrained from endorsing Harris, raising concerns that this historically Democratic voting bloc may not mobilize for the party this time around.
In the meantime, Trump has garnered some support among Arab-Americans by remaining vague, according to Grossmann. While he has expressed his backing for Israel, he has also promised to end the conflict without detailing how he plans to achieve this.
“Being ambiguous or unclear has given him an advantage among this community,” Grossmann noted.
In Hamtramck, a Detroit suburb with a Muslim population of about 60%, the city’s first Arab mayor, a Democrat, has endorsed Trump.
“President Trump and I may not see eye to eye on everything, but I recognize him as a principled man,” Mayor Amer Ghalib stated.
“We’ve repeatedly asked Biden and Harris to adjust their course, but to no avail.”
Rushing Toward the Finish Line
Despite worries about declining support, many political experts and Democratic strategists assert that Harris’s campaign is doing nearly everything possible to maintain a lead in Michigan.
Nonetheless, Alysa Diebolt, chair of the Democratic Party in Macomb County—an area Trump won in 2020—believes there is always more that can be done to engage apathetic voters.
“Harris definitely has work ahead of her,” Diebolt said. “In Michigan, you need to sprint through the finish line.”
Sharon Baseman, vice chair of Fems for Dems, hopes that these concerns will galvanize individuals and prevent complacency.
“We’re all feeling anxious,” she said.
Hanson added that polls in Michigan and nationwide may be skewed by several points on Election Day, though it’s unclear which way that will impact the race.
“This is an incredibly narrow margin,” he said. “It could go either way.”
