Voters in the U.S. will head to the polls on November 5 to elect their next president.
The election, originally set for a 2020 rematch, took an unexpected turn in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The pressing question now is whether America will see its first female president or a second term for Donald Trump.
As election day approaches, we’ll keep track of the polls and observe the impact of the campaign on the race for the White House.
Who is Leading National Polls?
Harris has maintained a slight lead over Trump in national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July, as shown in the table below with the latest figures rounded to the nearest whole number.
Latest National Polling Averages
| Candidate | Polling Percentage |
|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 51% |
| Donald Trump | 49% |
Harris saw a bounce in her polling numbers in the first few weeks of her campaign, building a lead of nearly four percentage points by the end of August. However, the numbers have remained relatively stable since early September, even after the sole debate between the two candidates on September 10, which was watched by nearly 70 million people.
The chart below illustrates how little the race has changed nationally over the past few weeks, with trend lines showing the averages and dots indicating individual poll results for each candidate.
While national polls offer a broad view of a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not necessarily accurate predictors of the election outcome. This is due to the U.S. electoral college system, where each state is assigned a number of votes roughly proportional to its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, with a candidate needing 270 to win.
Electoral College System
There are 50 states in the U.S., but because most of them consistently vote for the same party, the election’s outcome will be determined in a handful of battleground or swing states where both candidates have a chance of winning.
Who is Winning in Swing State Polls?
Currently, the polls are extremely tight in the seven states considered battlegrounds for this election, with neither candidate holding a decisive lead, according to polling averages.
Trends since Harris joined the race highlight some differences between states. However, it’s important to note that fewer state polls are available compared to national polls, resulting in less data and a margin of error in each poll.
In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, the lead has changed hands a few times since early August, with Trump holding a small lead in recent weeks. In Nevada, Harris is slightly ahead at the moment.
In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris has been leading since early August, sometimes by two or three points. However, the polls have tightened significantly in recent days.
All three of these states were Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red in 2016. Biden won them back in 2020, and if Harris can do the same, she is likely to win the election.
On the day Biden exited the race, he trailed Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in the seven swing states. In Pennsylvania, Biden was behind by nearly 4.5 percentage points when he dropped out. Pennsylvania is a key state for both campaigns, with the highest number of electoral votes among the seven battleground states, making it crucial for reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
How Are These Averages Created?
The figures used in the graphics are averages created by the polling analysis website 538, a part of ABC News. To create these averages, 538 collects data from individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by various polling companies. 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific criteria, such as transparency about the number of people polled, the timing of the poll, and the polling method (telephone, text message, online, etc.).
Can We Trust the Polls?
Current polls indicate that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a couple of percentage points of each other in swing states, making it challenging to predict winners when the race is that close.
Polls underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies are attempting to rectify this by making their results more reflective of the voting population. However, these adjustments are complex, and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about factors like voter turnout on November 5.
